New Report Explores Potential Consequences of Mass Deportation Across New York State’s Ten Economic Regions
Report from the Institute on Immigrant Integration Research and Policy details workforce, demographic, fiscal, and family-level disruptions for communities across the state
ALBANY, NY (04/16/2026) — A new report, The Consequences of Mass Deportation in Each of the Ten Regions of New York State, authored by Scott Fein, a scholar-in-residence at the Institute on Immigrant Integration Research and Policy (III-RP), details the far-reaching economic, demographic, and social consequences that a federal mass deportation policy could have on communities across New York State. In the report, Fein examines likely impacts on labor markets, education, health services, housing, tax revenues, and family stability in each of the state’s ten economic regions.
The latest federal immigration enforcement initiative, initially referred to as “Operation Aurora,” could place 15 to 20 million foreign-born noncitizens nationwide at risk of deportation over a decade, according to Fein. In New York State, 1.8 to 2.25 million residents could be affected. Fein also estimates the cost of carrying out such a policy at $315 billion to just shy of $1 trillion, including arrests, detention, legal processing, and removals.
The report from the Institute on Immigrant Integration underscores how deeply noncitizens are woven into New York’s economy and communities. It finds that noncitizens account for 14 percent of the state’s labor pool and 22 percent in New York City, while contributing $18.5 billion in combined state and local taxes, $33.1 billion in federal taxes, and helping sustain $120.5 billion in spending power in immigrant-led households.
Importantly, the report emphasizes that the consequences of mass deportation would not be confined to New York City. It documents likely disruption across all ten economic regions of the state, including Long Island, the Capital Region, the Mohawk Valley, the Southern Tier, the Finger Lakes, the North Country, the Western Tier, Central New York, and the Hudson Valley regions. In many upstate communities, the report explains, immigrant resettlement has helped stabilize population loss, revitalize neighborhoods, support agriculture and care work, fill vacant jobs, and sustain schools and local businesses.
Dina Refki, executive director of the Institute on Immigrant Integration Research and Policy, said, “One of the report’s most important contributions is its regional lens. It makes clear that the effects of mass deportation would not be limited to major urban centers, but would also be felt in suburbs, small cities, and rural communities that depend on immigration to sustain population, fill jobs, and strengthen social cohesion.”
Assemblywoman Phara Souffrant Forrest, Chair of the New York State Assembly Task Force on New Americans stated, “This report makes clear that mass deportations would be devastating not just for immigrant families, but for every corner of New York State. From Brooklyn to Buffalo, immigrants are filling critical workforce gaps, sustaining our schools, and revitalizing communities. In my district, I see every day how immigrant New Yorkers contribute to the fabric of our neighborhoods and our economy. These are not numbers: these are our neighbors, our caregivers, our students, and our workers. New York cannot afford to lose them, and we will continue to fight against policies that tear families apart and undermine the communities we serve.”
According to Scott Fein, III-RP Scholar in Residence and author of the report, “This report shows that mass deportation on the scale now being discussed would carry enormous consequences for New York State. It would disrupt labor markets, weaken the tax base, intensify demographic decline, and place families and communities under extraordinary strain at a time when many regions are already struggling to maintain population and fill critical jobs. This report is intended to help communities and policymakers better understand what large-scale deportation could mean not only in the abstract, but in the places where New Yorkers live and work every day.”
A copy of the report can be found here: https://www.nyimmigrants.org/_files/ugd/5572f9_5229614860114af0b07cdfd141662511.pdf
About the Institute on Immigrant Integration Research and Policy
The Institute on Immigrant Integration Research and Policy at the Rockefeller Institute of Government advances the economic, social, and political integration of foreign-born New Yorkers through research, policy analysis, and community engagement. Its work supports stronger communities, informed policymaking, and a deeper understanding of the factors that shape immigrant integration across New York State.